Sovereign Crisis Early Warning System
Open-source research platform • Peer-reviewed methodology • 40+ countries • Real-time data
9
Critical
Countries with Collapse Index ≥ 70. Estimated failure window: 0–6 months.
10
Danger
Countries with CI 50–70. Elevated risk. Estimated window: 6–12 months.
12
Caution
Countries with CI 25–50. Watchlist status. Estimated window: 12–24 months.
9
Safe
Countries with CI < 25. Normal economic stress levels.
58
Fracture
Fracture Index: Global systemic fragility score (0–100). Measures structural integrity of connections between economies.
47
Entropy
CausalEntropy Index: Measures how easily small shocks cascade into systemic failures (0–100).
Fracture Index
Global Systemic Fragility Monitor
58.3
STRESSED
—
FI = [Σ(Si × Wi)] × DM × (1 + EV). Components: Trade Fragmentation, Alliance Cohesion, Institutional Stress, Resource Scarcity, Strategic Stress.
CausalEntropy Index
Systemic Causal Fragility
47.1
FLUX
—
CEI = [α·IC + β·RL + γ·IN] / RD. Measures how easily micro-events cascade into macro-collapse. Based on entropy dynamics.
Monte Carlo Crisis Simulation — 10,000 Scenarios
CI 0255075100
Methodology — Collapse Index (CI)

The Collapse Index quantifies the probability of sovereign economic policy failure using a multi-dimensional stress-absorption-resilience framework. The index integrates 15 dimensions across five stress factors, three absorption factors, and two resilience factors, producing a composite score from 0 (stable) to 100 (imminent collapse).

CI = [Σ(Si × Wi)] / (A + R) × 100

Stress (S): Expectation gap, velocity of change, internal contradiction, external shocks, market pressure (5 weighted components).

Absorption (A): Foreign reserves adequacy, fiscal space, institutional credibility (3 components, averaged).

Resilience (R): Historical recovery capacity, policy flexibility (2 components, geometric mean).

0–25
SAFE
25–50
CAUTION
50–70
DANGER
70–85
CRITICAL
85–100
COLLAPSE

Full methodology, validation datasets, and reproducibility package available on Zenodo and Code Ocean. Source code available on GitHub. Data sources: World Bank Open Data, IMF World Economic Outlook, GDELT Project, SIPRI, UN COMTRADE.

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